Automotive industry is taking flight forward
Emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China will gain significantly in importance as automotive markets in the course of the current crisis. This was the result of an international survey by the auditing company KPMG among 200 leading representatives from the automotive and supplier industries.
For example, more than half of the companies surveyed intend to invest in the Chinese market for the first time or to a greater extent in the next five years (58.5 percent) and 43 percent would like to do so in India. The companies surveyed would also consider Russia and Brazil to be attractive markets, where a third and a quarter of those surveyed would like to invest or increase their commitment for the first time in the next five years.
However, around half of the companies fear that there will be overcapacities in Brazil, Russia and China in three to five years at the latest. For India, one in three assumes this, and twelve percent of the experts already said they had identified overcapacities in Russia. Although the production figures in traditional markets have already been reduced, 80 percent of those questioned believed that there was currently overcapacity in Western Europe as well. According to two thirds of the survey participants, these range between eleven and 30 percent, with a further 14 percent assuming even higher values. In the North American market, 88 percent of the experts see the capacities as exceeded, and thus almost as many in Japan.
According to half of those surveyed, suppliers should be “slightly” or “significantly” less profitable than before in the next five years. Every third party is of the opinion that manufacturers and retailers will also have to reckon with falling profits. The respondents only rated the situation comparatively optimistically for financial service providers of the car companies. In this segment, 40 percent of the industry experts expect slightly or significantly increasing profits by 2014. Companies that manage to cover as many stages of the value chain as possible will probably cope best with the situation. Above all, there are opportunities for savings through the use of innovative materials and by relocating capacities to countries with lower costs.