German advertising market slips into the red
The global advertising market continues to recover – while the German advertising market is shrinking moderately. According to the latest “Advertising Expenditure Forecast” from the media agency group Zenith Optimedia, the recovery in the next two years will again come from the Internet. Between 2012 and 2015, online advertising is estimated to grow by 15 percent annually and account for 66 percent of the total growth in advertising investment worldwide.
This is also based on the further increase in investments in online video and social media in the order of 30 percent annually. However, according to Zenith Optimedia, investments in mobile are by far the strongest. “We forecast that advertising investments in mobile this year will be 67 percent higher than in 2012 and will grow by an average of 51 percent annually through 2015,” says Chairman Frank-Peter Lortz. The reason lies in the rapid spread of smartphones and tablets. In comparison, online advertising on desktop PCs will only increase by ten percent.
Steep growth curve for mobile advertising
The media agency group assumes worldwide mobile advertising investments of 8.6 billion dollars in 2012, which corresponds to a share of 9.8 percent of online investments and 1.8 percent of total advertising investments. By 2015, investments in mobile will grow to $ 29.4 billion, equivalent to 21.9 percent of online investments and 6.1 percent of total advertising investments.
“In Germany, too, mobile is moving more into the focus of advertisers. We expect mobile investments to double compared to 2012 in this country. However, that will not change the fact that the local advertising market is slipping slightly into the red this year, ”explains Lortz. “The economic forecasts from the first quarter for Germany have since been revised downwards significantly. In addition, multinational advertisers in this country are reducing their marketing efforts in order to be able to cushion the slump in sales in southern Europe in their balance sheet. This means that advertising investments will fall by 1.6 percent this year. “
Slight relaxation in the eurozone
On the global stage, the recession in the southern Eurozone and the tensions between North Korea and its neighbors are contributing to the growth correction of 0.4 percentage points. The economic upturn in the eurozone, which economic experts hoped to see in the second half of the year, is expected to be postponed into the coming year. For example, advertising investments in the euro zone will fall by 3.9 percent instead of 1.6 percent (forecast from April) – which is still an improvement on the 5.2 percent drop in the previous year. Provided that the euro zone experiences an upswing from the end of the year, advertising spending will stabilize at 0.8 percent in 2014 and rise gently again by 1.8 percent in 2015.
Political tensions on the Korean peninsula are most pronounced in the South Korean population. Fear of conflict dampens consumer pleasure, and advertisers act cautiously. The South Korean advertising market, after all the tenth largest in the world, is expected to shrink by 6.5 percent.
Russia pushes France out of the top 10
In 2015, the USA, Japan, China and Germany will still occupy the first four places in the ranking of the top 10 advertising markets. In the following places Great Britain, Brazil and Australia remain in positions 5, 6 and 7. Canada and South Korea move up one place to positions 8 and 9 and displace France from the top ten. Russia moves to 10th place.
With the current study “Advertising Expenditure Forecast”, the media agency group Zenith-Optimedia corrects its forecast from April as follows: This year the global advertising market will grow by 3.5 percent (instead of 3.9 percent), in 2014 by 5.1 percent (instead of 5.6 percent) and in 2015 by 5.8 percent. (Zenith Optimedia / asc)