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GfK predicts real consumption in 2008 will increase by one percent



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GfK predicts real consumption in 2008 will increase by one percent


The mood of German customers improved somewhat in March. While economic expectations are increasing only minimally, both income expectations and the propensity to buy are showing significant gains.

This emerges from the current consumer climate study by GfK for March. The Nuremberg Institute is forecasting a consumer climate value of 4.6 points for April (March: 4.5 points). “Should the price increase rate move well above the 2 percent mark throughout 2008 and thus remain significantly higher than originally assumed, real private consumption should only increase by up to one percent this year,” the experts judge.

This means that the economic expectations of German consumers stabilized again in March after the setback last month with a minus of more than 14 points. The indicator gained a minimum of 0.4 points and now has 15.0 points. According to the report, after the significant gains of more than 4 points in the previous month, income expectations could increase again in March. The indicator currently has a value of 1.5 points and is thus in positive territory for the first time since September 2007.

The propensity to buy increased more significantly again in March. With an increase of almost 5 points, the losses from the previous month can only be partially made up for. At currently -10.2 points, the propensity to consume in March is a good 2 points above the corresponding value for the previous year. The propensity to consume thus remains well below its long-term average of 0 points.

The researchers see a slight increase in the consumer climate in the positive development of the indicators this month. The overall indicator forecasts a minimally improved value for April at 4.6 points. An increased propensity to save has prevented a stronger increase, explain the consumer climate experts.

www.gfk.com