When it comes to consumption, GfK is optimistic
While the Munich Economic Institute reported yesterday via its current Ifo business climate index that companies assess their current business situation significantly worse than in November, GfK is optimistic with regard to the propensity to consume: The Nuremberg-based company sees the consumer climate “stabilized again”.
This is primarily due to the significantly increased propensity of consumers to make purchases in the Christmas month of December, the Nurembergers argue. The economic and income expectations, on the other hand, had to accept slight setbacks again. GfK’s consumer climate forecast for January 2008 was 4.5 points after a revised 4.4 points in December.
For the researchers, the chances of an end to the bearish trend in consumer economic prospects in December have increased. “At the end of the year, the indicator only had to accept a slight loss of 0.5 points compared to the previous month. However, it has fallen for the seventh time in a row since hitting its all-time high in May this year. With a current value of 23.6 points, the economic expectations are still well above their long-term average of 0 points,” the analysts report.
After the small plus in the previous month, however, they register a slight setback in income expectations in December. The indicator lost 1.7 points and now has -1.7 points. Compared to the previous year, however, there was still an increase of almost 15 points. At the end of the year, the propensity to buy improved significantly. The indicator gained 11.1 points in December this year. This more than compensated for the losses of 8.9 points from the previous month. Nevertheless, compared to the previous year, there is still a considerable minus.
Above all, the researchers see a sign that the consumer climate could continue to stabilize in the improved propensity to buy. The indicator is supported by a declining propensity to save. After the revised 4.4 points in December, the indicator forecasts 4.5 points for next January.